30 ธันวาคม 2568

4Q25 Newsletter

Dear Valued Investors and Stakeholders,

Welcome to the 4Q25 IR Newsletter. We begin this edition with a heartfelt tribute to Her Majesty Queen Sirikit The Queen Mother, whose passing in October 2025 marked a profound moment of mourning for the nation. SCBX Group joined the memorial ceremony to honor Her Majesty’s enduring contributions to Thailand, reflecting deep respect and gratitude for her legacy of compassion and development. As we honor Her Majesty’s legacy, this edition also highlights key developments across SCBX Group since the 3Q25 Analyst Meeting on October 21, 2025, including macroeconomic updates, business progress, and innovation milestones.

On the economic front, Thailand’s macroeconomic outlook remains fragile, with SCB EIC expecting GDP growth of 2.0% in 2025 amid persistent structural and external headwinds. Against this backdrop, monetary policy has shifted decisively toward easing. The Monetary Policy Committee cut the policy rate again in 4Q25 on December 17, 2025, bringing the cumulative reduction in 2025 to 100 bps, from 2.25% to 1.25%, following rate cuts in February, April, August, and December. Financial conditions are expected to remain tight despite gradual easing, with the policy rate projected to decline further to 1.0% in 1H26 to help lower financing costs and support inflation, which is expected to remain below target. Reflecting the easing cycle, SCB Bank has reduced lending rates during the year, with MRR down 50 bps to 6.675%, MLR down 52.5 bps to 6.400%, and MOR down 90 bps to 6.425% as of December 2025. Overall, 2025 has effectively become a year of rate cuts, underscoring policymakers’ efforts to cushion the economy amid ongoing growth challenges.

This quarter’s key highlights reflect SCBX’s continued focus on innovation, technology leadership, and organizational resilience. Key milestones include strengthened digital security through collaboration with the National Cyber Security Agency, advances in AI via SCB 10X’s launch of Thailand’s first open-source Isan-language speech recognition model, and Token X’s NOBLX, the country’s first regulated cross-border asset tokenization initiative. These efforts were complemented by new AI patent filings and recognition from the SET Sustainability Awards and multiple HR awards.

We hope this newsletter provides a clear overview of SCBX’s recent progress. Thank you for your continued trust and support. A FAQ section is included at the end of this report to address key questions from investors and analysts.

Warm regards,

SCBX Investor Relations

SCB EIC – Outlook quarter 4/2025

Thailand’s economic growth is projected to remain modest amid persistent external and domestic headwinds. According to SCB EIC, the economy is expected to expand by around 2.0% in 2025, before slowing further to approximately 1.5% in 2026, representing one of the weakest growth trajectories in recent decades outside of crisis periods. This subdued outlook reflects fragile global demand, ongoing trade risks, and structural bottlenecks within the domestic economy.

On the external front, global growth is expected to moderate as geopolitical tensions and tighter financial conditions weigh on trade flows. For Thailand, the export sector, which received temporary support earlier in 2025 from front-loaded shipments ahead of tariff measures, is expected to lose momentum as tariff pressures become more entrenched and international demand softens. Competitive challenges from low-cost producers and the relatively strong baht further constrain export competitiveness, underscoring the limited contribution of trade to the near-term recovery.

Against this backdrop, the tourism sector continues its gradual recovery, providing some support to service-sector demand. Foreign tourist arrivals are expected to rise to around 34.1 million in 2026, up from 2025 levels, though still below pre-pandemic peaks. However, domestic demand remains subdued, with private consumption constrained by high household debt and cautious sentiment, while private investment recovery is tempered by weak demand prospects. Public investment, although supportive in principle, continues to face implementation delays that reduce its near-term impact.

Inflationary pressures are expected to stay muted, with headline inflation projected to remain below the Bank of Thailand’s target range, reinforcing the case for further monetary policy accommodation. SCB EIC anticipates the policy rate will be cut to around 1.0% in early 2026, helping to ease financial conditions. Overall, Thailand’s outlook points to a prolonged low-growth environment, where a more durable recovery will depend on improving competitiveness, addressing structural constraints, and strengthening productivity amid an increasingly uncertain global landscape.

SCBX and NCSA deepen collaboration to elevate Thailand’s cybersecurity resilience

SCBX has partnered with the National Cyber Security Agency (NCSA) to advance Thailand’s cybersecurity ecosystem through the Cyber Collaboration Forum: Building Resilience Together. The collaboration reflects SCBX’s commitment to strengthening public-private cooperation in addressing rising cyber threats amid rapid digitalization and the adoption of AI technologies across financial services. Representing SCBX, Mr. Dennis Trawnitschek, Chief Technology Officer of SCBX, highlighted the need for a holistic cybersecurity approach that integrates technology, governance, and risk management to support sustainable digital transformation.

SCBX and NCSA have identified four key areas of collaboration to enhance Thailand’s cybersecurity readiness:

Cybersecurity Framework & Standards Development – Promoting adoption of modern security standards across sectors, including cloud security, web applications, and quantum-safe readiness.
Cyber Workforce Development – Supporting upskilling initiatives and joint programs, including collaborations with global partners like Mandiant.
AI Security Research & Innovation – Co-creating secure, auditable AI systems aligned with ethical and regulatory requirements.
Cyber Threat Intelligence Exchange – Establishing continuous mechanisms for information sharing to strengthen national threat response and resilience.

This collaboration underscores SCBX’s commitment to enabling a secure and trustworthy digital ecosystem in Thailand, reinforcing its role as a proactive partner in national digital transformation efforts.

Token X launches “NOBLX” – Thailand’s first regulated cross-border asset tokenization initiative

Token X has announced the launch of NOBLX, marking Thailand’s first regulated cross-border niche asset tokenization project. The initiative demonstrates the practical application of blockchain technology in enabling cross-border liquidity transfer and connecting investment opportunities across Europe, Thailand, South Korea, and Singapore under a compliant regulatory framework.

The NOBLX project introduces fine European wines as tokenized real-world assets offered through a digital token private placement under the supervision of the Securities and Exchange Commission of Thailand. The project highlights how tokenization can expand access to alternative investment assets while maintaining transparency, investor protection, and regulatory oversight. The collaboration brings together key international partners, including SBI Digital Markets (Singapore) and Kyobo Life Insurance and Kyobo Securities (South Korea), strengthening cross-border connectivity and the regional digital asset ecosystem.

This milestone underscores SCBX’s continued commitment to advancing innovative and compliant digital finance solutions. Through Token X, the Group reinforces its leadership in real-world asset tokenization and next-generation financial infrastructure, supporting the development of a sustainable and globally connected digital asset market.

SCB 10X Unveils “Typhoon Isan” The First Systematic Isan ASR Model

SCB 10X has unveiled Typhoon Isan, a pioneering open-source AI initiative designed to advance inclusive artificial intelligence for Thailand by developing research-driven models that deeply understand local linguistic and cultural contexts; the project marks the launch of the first systematic Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) model for the Isan language, accompanied by open-source linguistic datasets and tools aimed at elevating Thailand’s AI capabilities and supporting developers, researchers, and businesses with AI that truly reflects regional accents and dialects, reinforcing SCB 10X’s mission to build powerful, trustworthy, and human-centric AI for all Thai people.

SCBX files patents for three AI innovations strengthening future-ready financial technology

SCBX has filed patents for three pivotal AI innovations developed by its R&D and Innovation Lab, reinforcing the Group’s leadership in responsible, secure, and transparent AI-driven financial technologies; the patents span a voice-to-text customer protection system to monitor sales conduct and service quality, an AI-powered voice-to-voice training tool to enhance employee communication skills and compliance, and a quantum-resilient distributed credit assessment framework using Post-Quantum Cryptography and Zero-Knowledge Proof to enable privacy-preserving joint credit scoring across financial and non-bank sectors, underscoring SCBX’s commitment to building intellectual property that supports business outcomes, elevates operational capability, and prepares the organization for future technological and security demands.

SCBX Honored with “Best Sustainability Awards” at SET Awards 2025

SCBX has been honored with the “Best Sustainability Awards” at the SET Awards 2025, presented by the Stock Exchange of Thailand and Money and Banking Magazine, in recognition of the Group’s outstanding integration of financial performance with strong environmental, social, and governance (ESG) practices; the Sustainability Excellence accolade underscores SCBX’s systematic approach to reducing environmental impact, promoting social equity, strengthening corporate governance, and creating long-term value for stakeholders, reinforcing its leadership in balancing business growth with responsible and sustainable development.

SCBX Secures 10 Prestigious HR Awards at Regional and National Levels

SCBX has secured 10 prestigious HR awards at regional and national levels, elevating the organization as a “Best Place to Work” through a strong focus on employee-centric culture and innovative use of artificial intelligence across human resource practices; the accolades, received from leading platforms including HR Asia, HR Excellence Awards Thailand, and TMA Excellence Awards, reflect SCBX’s commitment to fostering a supportive and future-ready workplace environment that prioritizes diversity, inclusion, talent development, and advanced HR technology.

FAQs

Q: What drove investment and trading gains during the quarter?

A: SCBX Group’s investment portfolio spans SCB Bank, SCB 10X, and SCBX, and includes both strategic investments that support long-term growth and treasury investments aimed at liquidity management and yield optimization.

Investment gains primarily stem from:

Mark-to-market valuations of assets classified as FVTPL.
Realized gains from disposals of assets previously measured at FVOCI, such as treasury investments.

These gains are subject to market volatility, particularly from interest rate movements and equity price fluctuations.

Q: Where are SCBX’s medium-term growth opportunities, particularly in wealth and insurance?

A: Growth will be driven by:

Mortgages and a recovery in corporate lending; and
Expanding non-interest income from wealth and insurance.

In wealth, growth is expected to be supported by cross-unit collaboration and broader offshore product access. In insurance, while non-life and credit life remain soft in the near term due to subdued loan growth, life insurance continues to be a key growth engine, driven by high-margin savings products. Bancassurance fee income is expected to benefit from data analytics and AI via DataX, enabling more personalized offerings, better engagement timing, and stronger cross-selling.

Q: How is SCBX managing costs and efficiency?

A: Cost efficiency is improving not only through branch and headcount rationalization, but increasingly through process redesign and digitalization.

Q: How has the “You Fight, We Help” program impacted NIM, loan staging, and provisions?

A: The program reduced NIM and EIR, partly offset by higher lending-related fees from FIDF compensation. It also curtailed migration to Stage 2 and Stage 3 loans under strict eligibility criteria, leading to provision releases from loan staging upgrades.

Q: What is the current capital position?

A: CET1 stands at 17.7% and CAR at 18.9%, broadly stable versus pre-COVID levels.

Q: What is the progress update on SCBX’s virtual bank? What is the expected launch timeline and OPEX for 2025 and 2026?

A: We have one year from 19 June 2025 to prepare for the business launch. The team is already on board. In terms of OPEX, the 200 to 300 million Thai baht will be occurred within this year (very minimal occurred in 3Q25) and has already been factored into our CI ratio guidance.

For 2026, there will still be some further investment and the magnitude will be disclosed later on.

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